This past week, mortgage
rates hit a new record low, bottoming out at a 3.79% average for a 30 year
loan. A fifteen year mortgage is now at 3.04%. This is compared to rates that
were 4.64% and 3.82% a year ago, respectively.
To put that in perspective, if you have a $200,000 home loan, your monthly
mortgage payment for a thirty year loan would be $930.78, and on a 15 year loan,
you’d only be paying $1,385.01.
That’s pretty low. For many people, these rates would be lower than what you
might expect to pay on a similar rental.
When Sarah and I bought our home, interest rates were falling pretty quickly.
We got a rate that was under 6% on a thirty year mortgage and were thrilled with
how low it was. Today, we could have received a mortgage with the same monthly
payments but for an amount tens of thousands of dollars higher. The pendulum
really has shifted in favor of the buyer.
These low rates bring about a big question:
how low do rates have to
be before it’s a good idea to get a mortgage, even if you don’t have a 20% down
payment?
This is really a tricky question to answer, because much of the answer has to
do with one’s personal ideas about money. There is no good way to “run the
numbers” over the long term, because
the true answer to this question
relies on the future of the housing market in the particular area where you’re
buying the house, as well as things like the homeowner’s desire and
ability to keep their house in good shape.
Given that we can’t know such things, my perspective is that
you
should buy when your total monthly cost for owning the home is less than the
total monthly cost of renting. Right now, the interest rates are making
the home ownership cost quite low.
For example, let’s say you’re looking at buying a townhouse that’s similar to
the apartment you’re renting with your spouse. You’re currently renting for
$1,200 a month and you pay, say, $25 a month in renters insurance.
If you buy a $200,000 home with nothing down, you’ll be paying $930 a month
in mortgage payments, another $80 or so a month in PMI, another $80 a month in
homeowners insurance, and another (say) $200 a month in property taxes. That
adds up to $1,290, which means it’s a solid deal, but not a great one.
Now, if you buy a $150,000 home with nothing down, your total goes down to
somewhere around $970 a month, which makes it a better deal.
In other words,
if the total cost of your rental is more than the
total cost of home ownership, then you should own. If it’s really
close, I lean slightly toward renting, simply because there are usually extra
costs in home ownership, such as home repairs and the like. You can no longer
just call a landlord.
Right now,
the pendulum is about as far toward home ownership as can
be, but it’s still not all the way there for everyone. If you’re in an
inexpensive apartment and don’t have a down payment saved up, you’re better off
staying put.
What about the pendulum swinging back the other way in the future?
The possibility of something becoming more expensive in the future is
not a good reason to put yourself in a financially risky position
today, particularly if your financial position isn’t strong enough for
home ownership. If you don’t have a lot of money to spare, leave the risky
investments to others and play it safe.
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